NobleTrading Weekly Newsletter, November 16, 2009

The Week Ahead: The U.S. trade deficit expanded 18% in September the biggest one month increase in 10 years while consumer sentiment took an unexpected drop. Again markets shrugged off the news as stocks rose for the second straight week. On Monday, Ben Bernanke will speak in New York City and retail sales and business inventories are released. The PPI and Industrial Production numbers are due out on Tuesday. The CPI and housing starts data are released Wednesday. The leading indicators for October come out Thursday.

Stocks to Watch: Copa Holdings (CPA) beat Q3 earnings from a year ago despite a 7% drop in revenues as the stock reached 2 year highs. Esco Technologies (ESE), an engineering firm, also showed better numbers versus last year but fell 11% because of a poor outlook for 2010. Assured Guaranty (AGO) had its debt downgraded by Moody's, but rose 20% as J.P. Morgan issued an overweight rating on the stock. Two new issues to track: Dollar General (DG) and Rue 21 Inc. (RUE), a teen clothing retailer, both successfully traded up on Friday.

Special Note: Stocks here in the U.S. and abroad continue diverging behavior. Examples include the Dow Industrials at new 2009 high but the Dow Transports and Utilites not confirming. Nasdaq 100 Index at new high but Russell 2000 not confirming. Hang Seng Index at new high, but Shanghai Composite and Japan's Nikkei Index not confirming. London FTSE at new high but Paris CAC-40 and Frankfurt Dax Index not confirming and many others. The implications of this behavior are significant and will likely determine the direction stocks will take between now and year end. More next week.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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